Showing posts with label modeling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label modeling. Show all posts

Friday, March 20, 2020

Coronavirus will radically alter the U.S.; The Washington Post, March 20, 2020


Here’s what may lie ahead based on math models, hospital projections and past pandemics


"The power of the individual

Stanford virologist Karla Kirkegaard said she has tried to stave off dread from the projected U.S. death tolls with a case study she teaches in her classes:

Amid a cholera outbreak in mid-19th century London, as panicked residents fled one hard-hit neighborhood, a doctor named John Snow calmly entered the breach. He deduced that the source of hundreds of deaths was a single contaminated water pump and persuaded authorities to remove the pump’s handle — a strategy that ended the outbreak.

Controlling the covid-19 pandemic will take much more than a single water pump, Kirkegaard acknowledged as she sheltered in place at her Bay Area home.

But the story, she said, reminds her how powerful the simple act of one individual can be."

Thursday, September 13, 2018

North Carolina, Warned of Rising Seas, Chose to Favor Development; The New York Times, September 12, 2018

John Schwartz and Richard Fausset, The New York Times; North Carolina, Warned of Rising Seas, Chose to Favor Development

[Kip Currier: Food for thought for all stakeholders (--particularly anyone, anywhere, concerned and involved with matters of scientific research, data, modeling, ethics, law, and policy--) as the Carolinas prepare for the arrival of Hurricane Florence.

The article's takeaway insight is in the last three sentences, excerpted and highlighted in bold below.]

"The leading scientific model used to forecast storm surge and its effect on coastal areas, known as Adcirc, was created in large part by Rick Luettich, director of the institute of marine sciences at the University of North Carolina.

In a telephone interview during a break from boarding up the windows of his home in Morehead City, on the coast, Mr. Luettich noted that before 2012, the state pursued progressive policies that put it in the forefront of coastal management. When the legislature pushed back against the clear scientific evidence underlying climate change, he said, “it came as a shock.”

There is a lesson in that, he said.

[Bold and red added for emphasis] “The process of converting scientific research into policy is one that we take for granted at times,” Mr. Luettich said. “What we learned is that you can’t take that for granted. We need to have a closer dialogue with policymakers, to make sure we’re on the same page.”