Javier C. Hernández, Kiuko Notoya and Hisako Ueno
, The New York Times; When Will Japan’s Cherry Blossoms Bloom? A.I. Can Help Answer That
"For Hiroki Ito, a data scientist and meteorologist who specializes in the high-stakes art of predicting the exact date that the trees will bloom, it has always been a time of stress. Japan’s prized cherry blossoms generate an estimated more than $9 billion in tourism and other revenue each year. Airlines, hotels and restaurants depend on the forecasts — not to mention the 123 million Japanese who want to know when to head to parks and gardens for peak bloom...
Now, Mr. Ito and other experts are turning to a tool they hope might reduce some of the burden of forecasting: artificial intelligence. They are using A.I. systems to analyze decades of temperature data, and to deliver maps and “bloom meters” for trees in more than 1,000 spots, which blossom at different times.
This year, forecasters are crowdsourcing photos from the public and feeding them into A.I.-powered databases that can track the growth of buds, which form in the summer, stay dormant through the winter, and take anywhere from two to four weeks to blossom after turning green in the spring.
In the past, experts relied on computer analysis of weather patterns and observations of trees to predict the arrival of the “blossom front,” or the flowering of the trees — with varying success. In 2007, forecasters with the official Japan Meteorological Agency were forced to deliver a televised apology after a computer glitch caused the agency to get the forecast wrong by up to nine days in some places.
A.I. systems have brought more efficiency and precision to the process, scientists say, allowing the first predictions to come out a few weeks earlier, in December — three months before the start of the main cherry blossom season."
